Dr. Sara Vakhshouri is Founder and President of SVB Energy International and SVB Green Access, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, the Institute of World Politics (IWP) and KAPSARC School of Public Policy, Head of The Center for Energy Security and Diplomacy at the IWP and Senior Energy Fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
How would you describe the relative significance and interplay between the components of the energy transition?
The energy transition requires a delicate balance between the components of the energy trilemma: reliability, affordability, and sustainability, all anchored by the critical need for energy security. Reliability ensures energy systems remain resilient and capable of meeting demand without interruptions, which is essential for economic stability. Affordability focuses on providing energy access at reasonable costs for consumers and industries, while sustainability emphasizes reducing environmental impacts and addressing climate change through clean and renewable energy sources. Energy security however is both core and fundamental to the energy transition, as it directly supports national security, economic prosperity, and the reliable supply of essentials like electricity, water access and food security—all critical to basic human needs and everyday life.
“The energy transition requires a delicate balance between the components of the energy trilemma: reliability, affordability, and sustainability.”
How do you stay informed about the latest advancements in the energy landscape while ensuring a pragmatic and balanced view? How do you recommend non-experts stay informed as well?
I follow reputable energy-focused publications, attend industry conferences, and engage with experts, policy makers and, decision makers from diverse and related sectors around the world. I also prioritize understanding the practical implications of emerging technologies and policies to ensure a pragmatic approach.
“Read and follow all data, reports, and narratives, but don’t trust them too easily.”
For non-experts, I recommend starting with accessible resources, reputable news outlets, and educational platforms that simplify complex topics. Podcasts and webinars from trusted sources can also be helpful for staying informed without delving too deeply into technical details. Diversifying sources and seeking out balanced perspectives is essential.
I like to share a guideline I often tell my students: “read and follow all data, reports, and narratives, but don’t trust them too easily.” Often, certain data and narratives may not be accurate and can instead be misleading. Critical thinking and cross-referencing are crucial in navigating the complexities of the energy landscape.
“Critical thinking and cross-referencing are crucial in navigating the complexities of the energy landscape.”
How do you envision an equitably-financed energy transition, and what role will inter-governmental and private-public partnerships play in that process?
Based on our experience working with underserved communities lacking power and safe water, addressing energy poverty and fostering energy equity is complex, requiring multidimensional planning and investment across sectors like energy, water, health and education. Many of these communities cannot immediately repay investments, making conventional, bankability-focused financing unsuitable. Government grants and support are essential to make such projects viable and sustainable, as governments can assume higher risks and provide foundational funding.
Another key challenge is the lack of reliable data, as many impoverished communities are poorly documented, and data collection is costly and difficult. Unknown factors further complicate planning, requiring resilience and risk tolerance that governments are better positioned to provide. Inter-governmental and public-private partnerships are crucial to bridging these gaps by de-risking projects, attracting private investment, and ensuring a sustainable, inclusive energy transition that empowers vulnerable communities.
“Addressing energy poverty and fostering energy equity is complex, requiring multidimensional planning and investment across sectors like energy, water, health and education.”
What factors do you believe are currently underestimated or misunderstood in global oil price and demand forecasts?
It depends on the forecasting model and the organization producing the data. Traditionally, oil demand forecasts relied on models grounded in market realities, focusing on economic indicators such as population growth and economic prosperity. However, in recent years, organizations like the IEA have adopted policy-based forecasting models, analyzing countries’ energy and environmental policies, such as net-zero commitments, to predict future demand.
While this approach can provide useful scenarios, it is prone to inaccuracies because policies are dynamic and subject to shifts in political environments, geopolitical tensions, and other external factors. As a result, some recent forecasts, including those by the IEA, have been less accurate.
Additionally, certain emerging factors remain underestimated even by traditional models. For example, the energy demand driven by AI is unconventional and rapidly evolving, with no proven methods yet to measure its impact. AI energy use is growing exponentially but could also increase efficiency in the future, making it a significant but poorly understood variable in current forecasting methodologies. These factors underscore the challenges of achieving accurate and reliable oil and energy demand forecasts.
“AI energy use is growing exponentially but could also increase efficiency in the future, making it a significant but poorly understood variable in current forecasting methodologies.”
How does the policy-driven nature of the current energy transition compare to past transitions, which were primarily driven by technology and economics, and what implications does this have for its pace and outcomes?
The short answer is that a policy-driven energy transition tends to have a short lifespan, much like the policies themselves. Policies are often shaped by immediate conditions and aimed at addressing short-term problems. As mentioned earlier, policies swing and change depending on various factors, such as political environments and economic conditions. A transition based solely on policies, rather than market realities, is unlikely to be sustainable or durable.
Another critical weakness of a policy-based transition is the mismatch between the pace of policy-setting and the time required to gather data and validate the feasibility of these policies. Policies are often set hastily, with specific targets, and fail to anticipate many factors. For example, the Biden administration’s goal of widespread EV adoption by 2030 may lose priority under the next administration due to shifting realities, such as increased demand from data centers and AI, and challenges related to grid expansion and renovation. This makes the policy unsustainable and not durable, and significant resources already invested in it, risk going to waste once priorities shift.
Beyond that, decisions driven by policies that lack robust economic backing or data often lead to unintended consequences. For instance, during the post-COVID years, many banks divested from fossil fuels to align with policy trends favoring renewables, leading to supply lags in the energy market. Similarly, energy transition policies have overlooked the additional demand for oil that the transition itself creates, further complicating supply dynamics.
Another critical oversight in energy transition policies is the lack of comprehensive life cycle analysis for alternative energy sources. The additional demand for energy and critical minerals, as well as the emissions involved in their life cycles are often overlooked, as is the failure to understand the potential consequences of carbon accounting on affordability and energy access. These oversights highlight the importance of grounding energy transitions in market realities and long-term economic models rather than relying on short-lived policy priorities.
What inspired your focus on energy security and economics, and what has been the most rewarding part of your career so far?
I have been working in the energy field for more than two decades, but my specific focus on energy security began in 2007 when I chose it as the topic for my Ph.D. dissertation. I was deeply fascinated by the interplay between energy, economics, and geopolitics, and how they collectively influence energy security, as well as its critical impact on national security and economic prosperity. Since then, this area has captivated me and shaped my professional journey.
Throughout my career, I’ve been fortunate to travel the world, collaborate with numerous companies and governments, and meet many remarkable people in this field—some of whom became lifelong friends and mentors who have taught me invaluable lessons. However, the most rewarding part of my career has been the opportunity to work with underserved communities, focusing on providing them with access to reliable energy and safe water.
It has been an incredibly complex and challenging endeavor, one that often tests my determination and hope. Yet even small progress in these efforts is profoundly fulfilling. The kindness and gratitude of people in these communities have been humbling and taught me invaluable lessons about resilience and the power of even the smallest contributions.
“I was deeply fascinated by the interplay between energy, economics, and geopolitics, and how they collectively influence energy security.”
Given your varied and extensive experiences, what advice would you give young professionals entering the energy industry?
The energy sector is a fascinating field with endless opportunities to learn, explore, and contribute. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives and future prosperity. Every effort in this industry is not just about addressing the needs of today but also about creating a lasting legacy for future generations. The opportunities are vast, and with dedication, anyone can thrive in this sector.
For young professionals, my advice is to maintain curiosity, stay updated on current trends and narratives, but always cross-reference information and develop your own unique understanding and judgment of what is happening and what may come next. Creativity and critical thinking are essential in navigating the complexities and shaping meaningful contributions in this field. This approach will empower young professionals to thrive in this dynamic and impactful industry.
As a woman in this field, I would particularly like to encourage young women to consider careers in energy. I have witnessed an encouraging growth in female participation, but it remains insufficient, especially in leadership positions. Among the many countries I have traveled to, worked in, and lived in, what is happening in Saudi Arabia in terms of female participation and leadership in the energy industry is truly impressive. The leadership vision within Saudi Arabia’s energy ecosystem, which actively encourages female participation and supports their leadership development, is commendable.
As a person who values data, but more importantly the quality and reality behind it, I find the progress in Saudi Arabia particularly remarkable. When HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman assumed office as Energy Minister in 2019, only eight Saudi women were working for the Saudi Energy Ministry. By December 2024, this number had grown to 675, with an additional 128 women anticipated to join by February 2025, bringing the total to 803 female employees. Beyond the numbers, what truly stands out is the significant increase in female leadership positions, reflecting the transformative and inclusive leadership. This progress serves as a powerful source of inspiration for young women everywhere, and I hope more countries around the world will adopt this vision and drive meaningful change in fostering female participation and leadership in the energy sector.